Left: Then-Vice President Joe Biden and I on April 17, 2012 at an Obama/Biden reelection campaign fundraiser at the Howard Theatre in Washington, D.C.
President Biden just announced his 2024 campaign for reelection to the presidency. At the same time, coverage of the President's announcement has focused significantly on polling that shows that a majority of Americans, including many Democratic voters, do not want Biden to run again. When asked why they do not want Biden to run again, most voters (of those who say they don't want a second Biden run) cite the President's age.I do not doubt the sincerity of voters' concern about Biden's age and that that is central to voters' skepticism. At age 80, he is not only the oldest person ever elected and sworn in as president but he also (from day one of his presidency) is older than any president has ever been on any day of the presidency.
There is one problem with this simple explanation of voters' angst regarding a 2024 Biden campaign: Joe Biden was still historically old (for a president) when he won the Democratic nomination in 2020, against many younger rivals, and won the general election later that year.
He was 78 years old for the entire first seven months of 2021 in which his approval rating was still at or above 50% and above water. It is reasonable that one would say that they did not envision, when electing Biden in 2020, that he would run again in 2024 especially since he himself said he only saw himself as a "bridge" to a new generation.
But the reality is that, as with all presidential elections, this election will be defined by the national conditions of the country and perceptions about our economy. Concerns about Biden's age may be genuine, on the part of voters, but they would not be paramount if voters perceived things to be going well in the country.
The truth is that the real concern for Biden is: prices, prices, prices. Inflation is still stubbornly high and that is why he is still unpopular, not because he is old. This would, as such, be a problem for any incumbent party nominee, not just Biden, because the incumbent party always gets tagged with the praise or blame for conditions.
Recall that though John McCain was much more popular than George W. Bush in 2008, personal favorability was not enough to save McCain from the wrath of voters' anger at the GOP broadly. One difference though here is Biden is at a still-not-terrible-in-our-climate-45% approval among voters, as opposed to Bush's 27% in 2008, and it is just fine enough that it oddly helps make him seem like the indispensable nominee. He is after all the incumbent with all the advantages, prowess, and trappings of the office, something no other potential candidate can boast as he is a unifying figure for the party coalition and is at least not Bush-level toxic.
What's the clearest example of how the real issue is more inflation than age here though? Consider that when people felt like COVID was in the rearview mirror (it was the "summer of joy") and the economy appeared to be improving, President Biden was enjoying strong approval ratings in the spring and summer of 2021. Was he not still old at that time? Of course he was.
But it did not matter as much to people because they felt like things were going well. Now, his lowest approval ratings are on the subjects of the economy and inflation and as prices have remained high, Biden's approval has remained low. During the optimistic times of early summer 2021, a majority of voters still thought Biden was handling the economy well and that hopefulness made Biden's overall approval rating solid.
It isn't to say that age is not a potential liability for Biden but rather that the liability is only magnified because people do not perceive things to be going well right now because, mainly, of prices and perceived instability in the markets. When things are perceived as going well on a president's watch, that president's unpopular personality traits and disfavored character qualities that are liabilities take a back seat for voters. When people perceive things as not going well, those liabilities are scrutinized in full force -- and seen as possible reasons why things are not good.
Therefore, fellow Democrats may want to consider that though there is not much the President could be able to do to shake off the public image of him as a classic grandfather, for better or for worse, some aspect of the inflation issue is within his control. What to do about this problem? Policywise, investments, like those Biden proposed in Build Back Better, would have a deflationary impact. But in terms of political messaging, Biden made a compelling theory of the case in the 2022 midterms that was strong enough to help produce impressive swing state Democratic performances last year.
He ought to reiterate that same case in 2024 as well: 1) that inflation is his "top economic priority," 2) that it was a "global problem" caused by COVID supply chain issues, 3) that his American Rescue Plan had a negligble effect on inflation while it spurred job growth, poverty reduction, GDP growth, and got the virus under control, and 4) that a variety of legislative and executive actions he's taken -- the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Ocean Shipping Reform Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, antitrust efforts, regulations against junk fees -- have helped bring inflation down from its peak.
In making this case, Biden is betting on voters giving him the benefit of the doubt, despite those doubts, because, as he says, it is a "choice, not a referendum" and that he should be compared not "to the Almighty but compare me to the alternative." Putting aside that, if we had followed their course of action, the GOP's 2020 clamor to "reopen" the economy in the midst of COVID may have exacerbated inflation more given the supply crunches, the "alternative" here is not just Donald Trump but also the forces he represents.
Biden would be wise to harness on themes he laid out in the State of the Union of targeting larger powerful, negative external harms that he is taking on with his leadership as they are the forces that fueled inflation. One early sign that the midterms were going to be OK was that voters correctly blamed COVID, corporate greed, and Putin for high prices (and they knew it was a global problem, something Biden emphasized). Biden should emphasize repeatedly how strongly he is taking on these menaces; that he, though imperfect, is much prefereable to the forces who don't take the virus seriously, who coddle corporate power, and who embrace authoritarians.
By reframing this more serious weakness (inflation) than his age this way, President Biden can inspire confidence in voters that he has this issue under control -- regardless of how old he is.
