President Biden took office a year ago this week. Just days after he was elected president, two prevailing expectations were that 1) the GOP would control the Senate and that 2) the pandemic would soon fade (the Pfizer vaccine announcement was two days after Joe Biden was projected winner). At the time, I also predicted that, because of these twin expectations, Biden would find political success in foreign policy, immigration, and COVID management – things he could control. With Mitch McConnell calling the shots on the Senate floor, I thought there’s no way anything happens in Congress.
Life and events had a different plan. Democrats unexpectedly won the Georgia runoffs and thus the Senate. Despite hundreds of millions of vaccinations that have saved many lives, COVID variants rage on frustratingly. Foreign policy has proven to be a political weakness as Biden was faulted by voters for his handling of Afghanistan. Immigration has been Biden’s worst issue, in my view because he has continued some Trump-era anti-asylum policies. While Biden has fallen short on Build Back Better and voting rights, he’s had astonishing success on confirming judges and passing two pieces of landmark economic legislation – because Democrats control the Senate.
Biden likes to say that he’s “a great respecter of fate” and that fate has “intervened” in ways he didn’t expect in his life. This theme has emerged in his presidential journey too. Life and events have often had different plans for him.
If you had told me years ago that Biden would succeed in passing a $1.9 trillion COVID relief measure despite Joe Manchin being the 50th Senator he needed, I would’ve said you’re crazy. Oddly, President Trump signing the CARES Act helped to change the debate. Democrats felt like they could do things like the American Rescue Plan and not face electoral blowback. After COVID emerged, Biden reimagined his campaign to be bolder. He has delivered with ARP and the bipartisan infrastructure law.
But fate intervened in the election itself to change just how bold Biden could be. I wrote in October 2020 that he could end up doing a bunch of stuff on wages and labor rights and climate that he just hasn’t been able to so far. That’s because the elections were far closer than expected and he didn’t win as many Senate seats as anticipated in June-October 2020. As such, he has been forced to tame his ambitions.
To be honest, that he’s made as much progress on Capitol Hill as he has is incredible in it of itself. Manchin and Sinema have supported all of his judges, ARP, the infrastructure law, Juneteenth as a federal holiday, and are on the cusp of voting for much climate and education spending (yes, after they watered down the rest of BBB). The alternative, the one that again just 14 months ago was the expectation, was McConnell controlling the floor. None of these items would be even in consideration.
Life and events, fate as it will, have most intervened recently in ways that have damaged Biden’s approval rating. Variants got in the way of declaring independence from the virus. The Taliban seized control of Afghanistan despite predictions from Biden that they wouldn’t. Inflation took a toll on people’s finances. Voters don’t blame Biden for these problems and they largely agree with his underlying policies on these issues. But we’ve gone through an emotional whiplash, a roller coaster as we thought we could breathe easy in spring and summer 2021 but now we’re exhausted all over again.
It doesn’t matter politically that voters correctly think supply chain issues and the pandemic have caused inflation, not Biden’s COVID relief spending. As long as inflation remains elevated, he’ll suffer – even as he takes concrete steps now to lower it. It doesn’t matter politically that voters don’t blame him for variants or that they support many of his wise mitigation measures. As long as the pandemic rages, he suffers because of the pandemic fatigue we feel. It doesn’t matter politically that voters correctly think he was right to withdraw from Afghanistan or that they think the situation there would’ve been almost impossible for any administration to control. As long as those images from the withdrawal remain in the public’s mind, he’ll suffer in his popularity.
However, fate and life and events can intervene soon in positive ways. ARP made it so many people this tax season can expect much more generous credits. Those refunds should soon hit people’s pockets. Antiviral pills will become more widely available soon. That’ll hasten the pandemic’s end, as Dr. Scott Gottlieb said recently. Impressive antitrust policies from Biden’s DOJ and FTC may soon yield results in reducing prices.
Where that leaves us within a year in is that things are in flux. Biden is in a rough political position now. It may not always be that way. Fate has a way of intervening. To the extent Biden can control things, of course he should. He should cancel student loan debt, mandate vaccines for air and train travel, and enact more aggressive climate regulations.
When President Obama showed higher energy in December 2014 after lower approval ratings in much of the year, he bounced back as he took action of his own on immigration and climate. At the same time, much as we have learned as a country there are things we cannot control, the President has learned the same. What happens next is anyone guess. Perhaps the last couple of years has taught us, more than anything, that a few days or weeks even can be a lifetime where matters radically alter. Stay tuned.
