So far, President Biden – a little more than six months into his tenure – has managed to stay popular and pursue mostly popular policies. His job approval rating on average has consistently hovered between 51 to 55 percent. Recent public opinion polling in crucial swing states show his approval is roughly around the same level in those states as well.
As for his programs, the American Rescue Plan Act, the infrastructure agreement, and his handling of COVID all poll well. Other pursuits, such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the American Families Plan proposals, also are popular. As various journalists and pundits have observed, Biden, with some notable exceptions, has heavily invested in appealing to the median voter. The President is focused on doing popular, populist things to keep his popularity afloat and thus long-term help his party and the larger progressive agenda.
The effects of this governing are mostly positive from a policy standpoint. The $1.9 trillion Rescue Plan was ambitious legislation. The law represented the single most significant first-round economic policy of a Democratic president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. On that front, Biden is clearly learning from his predecessors and getting great advice, including from his left-leaning Council of Economic Advisers. In this realm, popular policies also happen to be good policy. My former boss, state Rep. Phyllis Mundy, said as much all the time, in the reverse that is (“good policy is good politics”). It applies all the same here as Americans embrace the stimulus checks, money for vaccines and testing, the Child Tax Credit expansion, and anti-trust policies. The same can be said about Biden’s proposals on infrastructure and climate, education, and family support. These policies are anti-poverty and justice-oriented and also are popular. It is a win-win.
Similarly, on his handling of COVID, Biden has been competent and strategic. His administration’s vaccine rollout has been impressive; it hit a snag earlier this month because of the hold out unvaccinated but now, numbers are picking up again. The administration has earned high support from the public for working to get the virus under control. The decision to require vaccination of federal employees is a strong move too that demonstrates decisive leadership.
However, within these areas somewhat but mostly in other realms, Biden now is facing possible crises that could put his popularity at risk but where he has the potential to be courageous, polls be damned. Biden himself often lauds his former boss, President Obama for taking bold action that was unpopular at the time but paid off in the long run (such as, the ACA and the auto rescue). It is these moments forthcoming that will truly test the leadership potential of Biden and his principles.
For instance, just hours ago, the CDC eviction moratorium expired. Biden has said he won’t extend it (he did extend moratoriums on federally backed housing days ago). He blamed it on Justice Kavanaugh’s concurrence in a Supreme Court decision that allowed the moratorium to stay until Biden’s precious extension until July 31. Kavanaugh wrote that, as the pivotal fifth vote there, he believes a further extension warrants an act of Congress. Biden has called on Congress to extend the moratorium now but the ask was remarkably last-minute. Congress spectacularly failed to do so too. There is blame to go around here, including on states and localities that haven’t distributed this aid, but Biden could certainly be more forceful here. If he truly was invested in protecting people from hardship, he would call on the House to reconvene now. He would urge the Senate Democrats to create an emergency exception to the filibuster for this moratorium to allow this to go forward now. He may get blowback from landlords and it is uncertain how it’ll all play politically. But it’s the right thing to do and even long term it may pay off politically.
With regard to the Delta variant specifically, Biden could go even further and require proof of vaccination to enter federal buildings or get on an airplane abroad. That decision may risk some anger but it would be worthwhile for public safety – so, again, something that long-term could pay off politically.
On foreign policy, Biden has struggled to reenter the Iran Deal. The administration may be worried about angering moderate Democrats in Congress and/or the effects politically of a deal the GOP is sure to eagerly attack if it happens before the midterms. But the price of inaction is greater as it means potential conflict which would be undesirable. Long-term, the goal of prosperity at home and peace abroad would pay off politically too.
On voting rights, Biden is trying to be delicate on the filibuster as he moves his domestic agenda on economic matters through Congress. He may be resistant to pushing too strong for the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act now and for pushing for a filibuster exception there. He may worry about how that’ll affect his perception among Senators Manchin and Sinema and if the Democrats will appear to be “power grabbing,” or whatever it is the conservative media will say. But there is no better example here of how a certain action will be both good policy and good long term politics. Passing this legislation would ensure that we can go after partisan gerrymandering and regressive laws. If we don’t do it all, as Ari Berman recently pointed out, the GOP, through these measures alone, could regain political power.
On immigration, Biden is facing the most headwinds politically because his refugee admissions policy is unpopular and there is a false perception that the border is “insecure.” The reality sadly is that the administration has continued to invoke public health authority, on shaky grounds, to expel migrant families and single adults. At some point, Biden will have to, on these fronts, actually show leadership in bringing forth 125,000 refugees a year – as he initially stated – and in welcoming asylum seekers. He can make the forceful case to the public that these policies are for the benefit of all of us. As an old, white, moderate seeming man, he can help shape public opinion here as he is not seen by many voters as particularly threatening. He has a prime chance to use his privilege for good.
So far, Biden has overall performed well politically and in policy, especially on the economy and COVID on the whole. Moving forward though, he’ll have to make more difficult decisions that may momentarily put his popularity at risk but would be good for the country and even still be advantageous politically. How he proceeds in the future will determine the fate of his presidency.
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