Rising in Popularity, Obama Can Sustain Momentum With SOTU and Bold Action

On the eve of his penultimate State of the Union address, President Obama is enjoying a 50 percent approval rating in the new ABC News/Washington Post public opinion poll. This rise in popularity, a nine-point jump, is a stunning turnaround for Obama, whose Democratic Party lost control of the Senate and lost more than a dozen House seats last November.

However, since that time, the President has benefited from stronger than expected economic news, including: two consecutive positive jobs reports, five percent GDP growth, evidence of
potential wage increases, a 14-year high in job openings, and low gas prices.

Further, Obama has seen his approval rating among Hispanic voters increase by a large margin, undeniably as a consequence of his risky but ultimately politically advantageous move to shield five million undocumented immigrants from deportation. Beyond these facts, Obama's series of (mostly popular) post-midterms executive actions on a variety of fronts, ranging from net neutrality to the China climate deal to restoring relations with Cuba, has likely aided the President.

In summer 2014, when the House GOP voted to sue President Obama for executive actions, Obama rightfully remarked that Americans did not expect him to "sit around and twiddle his thumbs" but to instead act, on his own authority when necessary and legal, to achieve policy changes if Congress was unwilling to act. His political assessment has proven correct. Indeed, public opinion polls found that a majority of Americans disapproved of the GOP lawsuit, approved of a president taking executive actions when Congress is unproductive, and didn't abandon Democrats in 2014 because Obama took too many executive actions.

Therefore, as we enter into 2015, President Obama finds himself in a far stronger position politically in Washington than he was just two months ago. Nevertheless, the fact of the matter remains that Republicans, hostile to most of Obama's recent major policy proposals, control both houses of Congress now. If the congressional GOP's behavior is any indication, it is unlikely that their actions will be helpful to Obama in terms of his desire to remain relevant in Washington. In a 1995 press conference, President Clinton famously complained that the president is still a "relevant" player in D.C.

Unless Obama can continue to sustain the momentum he is riding, which means continuing to take action where he can, he may find himself echoing Clinton's concern. In fact, the congressional Republicans, by continually acting in ways that made gridlock inevitable, helped instill in the public a displeasure with D.C.  in 2014 -- something that the public routinely blames on DC's leading political actor: the President. There is no reason to think they do not have a similar incentive in 2016, when they are seeking to reclaim the presidency.

Nevertheless, the dynamics in this round might be different, as the GOP tries to show its chops as a productive governing party. It is within this context that President Obama might be able to exploit opportunities for legislative progress that would keep his popularity going.

For example, Obama could call the GOP's bluff on their purported desire to address stagnant wages. Not only have the Republicans claimed that income stagnation is a concern of theirs but they also have always been in support of tax cuts to address this problem. Obama just recently announced a proposal that addresses income stagnation which would be relieved by tax relief for the working class.

Another scenario in which Obama could find an opening for progress is if he seeks out a compromise in which the Republicans would win the repeal of either the employer mandate or medical device tax, neither of which are central to the Affordable Care Act's policy aims, in exchange for an Obama policy victory on a bipartisan issue like infrastructure.

However, if such compromise is elusive, President Obama, if he is to sustain his current momentum, should instead continue to be bold in executive authority. The public is on his side on core policy issues and his instincts, mostly, are the right ones, progressive ones, that is. He ought to be aggressive on expanding overtime pay, he should continue his hard-nosed but constructive engagement with Iran on peacefully resolving the nuclear issue, and he should ban the federal government from contracting with companies that do not provide paid leave to their employees.

These steps are not just politically popular but they are also solidly good public policy. If he continues on that path, while seeking the aforementioned compromises, he could keep up his popularity, especially if the economy further grows. The State of the Union address would be a good place to start though for seizing public attention on some of these issues.

It's true that the ratings for the SOTU have declined in recent years and that presidential addresses often polarize issues. Having said that, Obama has the chance to at least mobilize Democratic voters and millenials, groups who have embraced the president in the aftermath of some of his public pronouncements as of late, with his address. Interestingly, at the time of Obama's last SOTU address, when the President was in the low 40s, David Brooks said on PBS that it "felt like the second half of a second term," rather than the first half. Today, it feels quite the opposite as Obama's popularity is on the rise, an increase which can be at least sustained with an imaginative, stirring, and bold address, much like Clinton's 1999 SOTU or Obama's February 2009 address to Congress.

By delivering an enthusiastic, progressive, and strong address, Obama at least has the opportunity not to blunt his momentum and to, in fact, keep his newly strengthened standing with voters who have recently come back to the fold for him. After that though, it'll be back to work for Washington -- and though it is Congress that has been unproductive lately, that edict should apply to the reinvigorated President Obama too. After all, Americans do not expect him to "sit around and twiddle his thumbs."