MY FOLLOWING POST WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN THE SUNDIAL REVIEW:
In January 2008, Barack Obama told a Nevada newspaper that he wanted to be a transformational president. Unlike Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, Obama wanted to emulate Reagan in fundamentally reshaping the country’s political trajectory. As The Atlantic’s Peter Beinart recently extensively described, this central Obama promise was seemingly at odds with another vow of his campaign: seeking bipartisan common ground in Washington. Ultimately, President Obama made a conscious choice in his governing strategy as he faced the realities of the Beltway. As nearly all of his major legislative initiatives faced virtually unanimous GOP opposition in Congress, Obama chose to “change America” rather than “change Washington,” as author Michael Grunwald put it. In charting this course, Obama is accumulating several significant policy victories that have eluded several previous presidents. On sweeping health insurance reform, the expansion of gay rights, environmental regulations, and consumer protection efforts, Obama’s domestic legacy is poised to be a historic and accomplished record. Further, as Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman noted, the recovery from the financial crisis Obama inherited, albeit frustratingly slow and not broadly shared, has nevertheless been impressive in its size, scope, and speed. Even in the foreign policy arena, despite recent criticisms, Obama has found success in his aggressive campaign against al-Qaeda, most notably the death of Osama bin Laden, and in his efforts to rein in nuclear and chemical weapons worldwide.
Through it all, Obama has largely achieved these accomplishments through “partisan successes that will define his presidency,” as Slate’s John Dickerson noted. This is not to say though that the Obama presidency has been a bed of roses for the president. During his tumultuous second term, Obama has come under fire for a variety of government episodes, ranging from the NSA revelations and the VA scandal to the handling of threats from ISIS and the Ebola disease to the botched rollout of healthcare.gov. Making matters worse for Obama, the legislative gridlock in Washington, combined with voter frustration with slow wage growth, was blamed, at least partly, on him. His party consequently suffered massive losses in the November midterm elections, in which a victorious Republican Party regained control of the Senate. Dogged by low job approval ratings, a triumphant GOP, and the possibility that history does not favor a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016, President Obama has seemingly reenergized himself in recent weeks. A historic climate deal with China, sweeping immigration actions, and a renewed support for net neutrality spurredThe New Yorker’s John Cassidy to declare “Obama has had the best few weeks of his presidency in a long time.”
In order to see to it that the last two years of his presidency are productive and politically well received, Obama must maintain such energy while also inevitably working with the GOP Congress to score badly needed legislative victories. If he follows this advice, he can build on his already impressive record of achievements and secure his long-desired legacy of being a consequential president. In the immediate term, Obama could even see his job approval rating return to the high 40s, or even the low 50s, if he takes his track. If the president engages on this path, and economic growth continues to accelerate, a Democratic president will very likely succeed him, thus further strengthening his political legacy.
In order to see such political success though, it is crucial that Obama step up his efforts to combat wage stagnation. Professional political observers, ranging from The Washington Post’s John Sides to MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, have identified slow wage growth has a significant reason for Democrats’ poor electoral performance this year. Several analyses in The New York Times have further reaffirmed this thesis. In his Times column, “How Obama Lost America,” Ross Dothuat theorized that, though Obama was reelected on even weaker economic growth in 2012, it is plausible that voter patience has run out now. Given that economic conditions and incumbent party electoral performance correlate closely, and considering the Democrats’ historic issue ownership on wage equality issues, it is crucial for President Obama to more aggressively tackle this issue.
An overwhelming majority of Americans told exit polls on Election Day that the economy heavily favors the wealthy. Their assessment is borne our by the facts of the economic recovery: nearly all of the income gains have gone to the wealthiest Americans. Meanwhile, there has been little to no wage growth for tens of millions of low-income and middle-income Americans. To combat this political and policy problem, Congress can do pass a significant proposal that has earned wide, bipartisan backing: expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). An incentive for work, the EITC, a refundable tax credit that aids working families and grows as income enlarges until it is phased out at a certain level, is very politically popular. Both President Obama and Congressman Ryan have proposed expansions. The evidence that the EITC boosts wage growth is clear and strong, backed up by studies conducted by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the American Enterprise Institute. Even Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a likely 2016 presidential contender, has backed an EITC expansion. Policymakers have demonstrated the will to do previous expansions of the tax credit, including as recently as the fiscal cliff deal, and they ought to pursue further expansions. An enlargement of the EITC that is aimed at being more generous for childless workers and one that lowers the eligibility age would be prudent. Such an expansion, combined with making permanent the Recovery Act’s expansions for married couples and families with three or more children, would certainly grow wages. The President and Congress ought to work together to achieve an expansion of the EITC because it’s the one notable wage-growing policy that both parties can agree on and that could pass even this Congress. Obama ought to continue to push for an increase in the minimum wage and infrastructure spending but it is unlikely these policies would win congressional passage. On the issue of the EITC though, Obama should tread carefully. It is important for him to provide advocacy on this issue and to deploy Vice President Biden for negotiations on it but aggressive campaigning on it may not help. In fact, proactive political presidential leadership on policy issues risks polarizing those issues and decreasing public and congressional support for those policies. Nevertheless, from both a political and policy perspective, the President and Congress should do all they can to expand the EITC.
On the one hand, it is important for President Obama to seek bipartisan consensus, when possible, on an issue like the EITC. On the other hand, when the opposition party is recalcitrant, and executive power exists as an option, Obama ought to pursue the latter. In his “year of action” of 2014, the president has done just that. To suggest that such executive action was one of the causes of Democrats’ midterm losses is to ignore empirical evidence. A majority of Americans have told pollsters they favor presidential executive action on economic issues when Congress won’t act. The lawsuit House Republicans are pursuing against President Obama, on the issue of executive authority, is also broadly unpopular. In fact, Obama’s job approval rating actually increased in the wake of his early 2014 declarations that he would use his “pen and phone” to act. Therefore, it would be wise for the president to continue to advance progressive economic policy through executive actions. Whether it is updating overtime pay rules or prodding the Treasury to allow for refinancing of mortgages or continually improving the lives of workers for federal contractors, Obama should utilize the power at his disposal to increase economic growth. Not only would such measures be good policy but they also are politically more popular than conventional wisdom suggests.
Lastly, the President has a significant opportunity to build on his civil rights legacy as well. There are signs of an emerging bipartisan consensus on prison reform and improving the criminal justice system. Increasing public support for such measures ought to compel Obama to realize that the political moment has arrived for such efforts. The White House would be wise to capitalize on the bipartisan support for reducing prison sentences for low-level drug offenders, among other proposals, to pass congressional legislation. On his own, Obama could also deliver on his long-awaited pledge of a potentially massive clemency drive for such offenders already convicted. These actions would help undo decades of unjust policies while also having the political benefit of being particularly well-liked among Democratic base voters, notably young voters. Here, the President has the chance to be both strong in executive leadership and in congressional bipartisan negotiation.
On the aforementioned issues, President Obama has a strong chance to achieve notable accomplishments that would embolden him politically. These achievements would also be significant policy wins that are badly needed for the sake of the country. If the president pursues these initiatives, he can leave office knowing that he has left the country better than he found it. Considering what he has already accomplished, the opportunity exists for Barack Obama to be a transformational leader. The remaining two years will indicate whether he will seize on this opportunity.
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